Set the stage for 2026 with financial forecasting
The festive season isn’t just about celebrating and winding down (though that’s certainly an important part of it)—it’s also an ideal time to set your business up for a successful new year with solid financial planning. For Australian business owners, conducting a financial forecast before the holiday rush can offer clarity and set the stage for steady growth.
With many businesses experiencing fluctuating demand and expenses during this period, forecasting can help you prepare for these shifts, make informed decisions, and identify opportunities for profit. Read on for our guide to effective financial forecasting - so you can focus on growth while enjoying a well-deserved break.
Why financial forecasting matters
The holiday season often brings significant shifts in cash flow. For industries like retail and hospitality, it may mean a profitable upswing, while other sectors, such as manufacturing, may experience slower activity. Financial forecasting allows you to plan for these shifts in advance, helping you optimise resource allocation and stay financially stable.
Accurate forecasting enables you to make smarter decisions, such as adjusting staffing levels, managing inventory, and tailoring marketing budgets. Most importantly, forecasting highlights opportunities to increase profits—whether through seasonal promotions, adjusted pricing, or aligning with holiday market trends.
Ready to forecast for the festive season? Here are seven essential steps to prepare your business for a profitable holiday period.
1. Review historical data
Start by examining past performance to create a realistic forecast for the season. Historical data offers insights into patterns and trends that can guide your projections. Key metrics to consider include:
Sales data: Review sales figures from previous years to spot patterns and identify opportunities for growth.
Customer behavior: Consider how buying patterns shift during the holidays. Do customers tend to purchase specific products, or do they buy in larger quantities?
Inventory turnover: Look at past inventory usage to avoid overstocking or understocking.
2. Project seasonal expenses
Accurately projecting expenses is essential, as costs often increase during the festive period. Consider factors such as:
Seasonal staffing: If you bring on extra staff, account for wages and recruitment expenses.
Marketing budget: Plan your holiday marketing campaigns and set aside a budget for them. Think about how you can use digital marketing and social media ads, for example, to gain that extra edge.
Inventory costs: Determine how much additional stock you’ll need and budget for these inventory costs.
3. Forecast sales
Accurate sales projections play a big role in ensuring your festive season is a profitable period. For success, factor in the following
Demand fluctuations: Estimate how demand for your products or services will change during this period. Look at historical data for insights.
Pricing strategy: Should you roll out special pricing or promotions? How will this impact your sales volume and cash flow?
Market trends: Stay informed about current market trends. What are customers looking for over Christmas, and how can you align your offering with these trends?
4. Cash flow analysiS
To maintain a healthy cash flow during the holidays, you’ll need to analyse and project your cash flow. Some strategies include:
Manage accounts receivable: Try to encourage faster payments from customers by offering early-payment discounts or sending friendly follow-ups.
Negotiate with suppliers: Speak to your suppliers to see if you can lock in extended payment terms, giving you enough financial slack for inventory.
Secure financing: If your cash flow is tight, consider securing business financing to bridge the gaps. Our team of commercial brokers can assist with all sorts of financing solutions tailored to your needs.
5. Expect the unexpected
Great leaders plan for the unexpected. Create multiple financial scenarios to prepare for varied outcomes. Ask yourself: What if demand is lower than expected? Or, what if there’s a spike? Having a contingency plan will keep you agile and ready to adapt as needed.
6. Leverage technology
Use technology to your advantage, particularly platforms that can streamline your financial forecasting. There’s lots of great software and apps on the market that can help you better manage and analyse relevant business data.
With the right tools in your technology arsenal, you will be able to make more accurate projections and readjust your forecasts whenever necessary.
7. Seek professional support
For complex financial forecasting or if you simply don’t have the time to manage everything yourself, seek out professional guidance. Financial experts can give you some incredibly valuable insights into your business and even help you build out accurate forecasts.
“Financial forecasting is more than just crunching numbers – it's a strategic tool that empowers you to navigate the unique challenges and opportunities of the festive season,” says Brandon Hamilton, Managing Director at Hamilton Finance. “At Hamilton Finance, we see forecasting as a way for businesses to adapt, optimise, and thrive in an ever-evolving market. When done effectively, it empowers business owners to anticipate cash flow needs, capitalise on seasonal demands, and position themselves for sustainable, long-term growth.”
Our experts are here to support your long-term financial needs by sharing resources and strategies to help make the most of your business’s holiday season. Speak to the team at Hamilton Finance today or call us on 1300 023 173.
